Sunday, May 25, 2008

Issues surrounding abolition of monarchy

By BIPIN ADHIKARI

http://www.kantipuronline.com/kolnews.php?&nid=147732

The Kathmandu Post May 22, 2008

With less than a week left for the apparent end of monarchy, the CPN (Maoist) leaders have intensified their demand that King Gyanendra leave the palace well before May 28. This is the fateful date set by Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala for the first meeting of the newly elected Constituent Assembly, where he is going to table a motion to abolish monarchy, and lay down the foundation of the 'New Nepal.'

In the first meeting of the Constituent Assembly, Prime Minister Koirala is supposed to invoke Article 159 of the Interim Constitution, which gives him power to table such a motion, and the members of the Assembly are to vote on it according to Article 75. The fathers of the Interim Constitution, who believed that revolutions know no bounds of law, probably thought that the Assembly does not need any governing principles as to how the decision of the House is to be made and implemented.

As such, the existing interim parliament, the unelected members of which are still drawing their remuneration from the national coffer, did not think of the Abolition of Monarchy Act to meet the requirement of the due process. So the decision to be made politically is also likely to be implemented in a most controversial way.

While the Assembly process is yet to begin, the Maoist leaders have already started threatening the king and his family to leave the Narayanhiti palace as fast as possible. They have consistently indicated the possibility of the use of force to get the king out after May 28. Prime Minister Koirala too is on record several times for having said that the king should abdicate, and make the transition smooth. His remarks, although not as bitter as that of the Maoist leaders, also had contents of a veiled threat. While it is not clear why the Maoists want the king to leave the palace, at least a day before, or what political benefits will accrue to them if the king really gratifies them by accepting the request, the issues that involve in this context go beyond. The concern here is emphatically legal.

To a lawyer, it is not understandable how somebody can execute a decree without a court first awarding it. For example, whether a decree is for payment of money or for the recovery of any land or property, it must first be obtained from a law court. Such a decree gives necessary entitlement to the decree-holder to execute the decree against the judgment debtors. Then the execution may be effected by delivery of property, or by attachment and sale, or arrest of the defaulter, or in such other manner as the nature of the relief granted may require. This is what the civil law of Nepal states. Unless it does not apply to King Gyanendra, there is no reason why the rule of law should be parted with like this. Hence, the May 28 process must first be complied with before asking the King to leave the palace.

Again, Narayanhiti is not an illegal possession of the monarch. He is not its illegal occupant. He has every right to stay there until the law of the land is amended and he is deprived of his possession based on a valid piece of law. The legal tradition of this country builds around the principle that possession is 9/10ths of the law — or that one who has physical control of his property is clearly at an advantage should his rightful ownership of the property ever be subject to challenge. Even when a tiny public company is liquidated, it takes months to settle all claims. It is not convincing when the king as an ordinary individual is deprived of this process. It is better for the 'new regime', therefore, to wait for the May 28 process, and follow the legitimate course afterwards so that when they are at low ebbs, the legal system is able to protect their legitimate rights too.

King Charles the First, known as a noted English autocrat, was put on trial in January 1649 and executed following disagreements between him and his rump Parliament controlled by the army. Both sides claimed that they stood for the rule of law. The rump Parliament, with the backing of the army, established a High Court of Justice, where he was charged with high treason 'against the realm of England'.

The only people allowed into Parliament were those who Oliver Cromwell (Prachanda's rightist counterpart by analogy) thought supported the trial of the king. In fact only 68 out of 135 judges turned up for the trial. The public was not allowed into the hall until after the charge had been read out. The king refused to plead guilty, saying that he did not recognize the legality of the High Court in the first place. He said it was established by a Commons purged of dissent, which had never acted as a judicature, and without the House of Lords.

On the scaffold, the man who was to execute Charles refused to do it. So did others. Very quickly, another man and his assistant were found to do the job. His last speech to the crowd was "I have delivered to my conscience; I pray (to) God you do take those courses that are best for the good of the kingdom and (to) your own salvation."

Time changed even if some people were not looking forward to it. When Charles II returned to become King of England in 1660, following a long period of instability, those men who had signed his father's death warrant (and were still alive) were tried as regicides (the murderer of a king) and executed. Everyone associated with the execution except the executioners of Charles was put on trial. These executioners were able to escape as no-one knew who they were. After a struggle for about twenty years between royalists and republicans, monarchy was restored, and the English people again became subjects of the head of the Scottish house of Stuart. The main reason behind it was the unfair trial of Charles I.

In a similar case in Nepal, where it is not an army-supported trial which is involved in the abolition of monarchy, the Assembly should indeed enable the controversial monarch to contest the motion against him in the House, and present his version of the story before the actual voting under Article 75 of the Constitution. It will be too youthful to think that this can any way change the mood of the Assembly, or of the revolution which is making advances.

Nevertheless, the king of Nepal, who is being treated as the principal defendant should have the opportunity to speak to the people who must know what the other side of the story is. In democracy it matters; and it matters in the most powerful sense. The king is not being toppled, he is being laid off. If this is the truth, then the process requires that he must be allowed an adequate opportunity to present his case. Additionally, even if the faulty Constitution is silent on whether the sovereign representatives of the people have the right to caste their vote of conscience on the issue, they should be afforded this opportunity without expressing or implying whips from their parliamentary parties.

Eventually, those who are said to be making history should make it on the strength of self-respect and certain universal values. These values — justice, equality, the rule of law, to mention the most basic ones — need to be protected, no matter who gains from it. It might delay the process a little, but it can surely give a clear outlet to the problem and a firm footing to the democrats.
lawyers_inc_nepal@yahoo.com

Monday, May 12, 2008

Constituent Assembly to convene on May 28 (7:45pm)

http://www.nepalnews.com.np/archive/2008/may/may12/news13.php

Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala has called the first sitting of the Constituent Assembly (CA) on May 28 (11:00 am) at Birendra International Convention Centre (BICC), Baneshwor.

The Prime Minister, who also acts as the head of the state, announced the date for the CA meeting following consultations with the leaderships of political parties represented in the Assembly.

Last week, a meeting of the six parties of the seven-party alliance (SPA) had given him the responsibility to fix the date for CA meeting.

All major parties have already announced that the first CA meeting will abolish monarchy and declare Nepal a republican state. nepalnews.com mk May 12 08

Wednesday, May 7, 2008

Implications of a hung CA

By DR BIPIN ADHIKARI
http://www.kantipuronline.com/kolnews.php?&nid=146272
The Kathmandu Post, May 8, 2008

The Interim Constitution of Nepal 2007, which pledged a Constituent Assembly (CA) to the people, has done so without enumerating its constituent powers whatsoever.

All that this constitution provides for is a guarantee of the basic rights of the Nepali people to participate in a free and impartial election to the CA and frame a constitution for themselves through this organ. The Interim Constitution does not guarantee that the sovereign house will have no limitations in its constituent powers or that it will not be constrained by the decisions of the interim legislature or the interim government on the basis of this constitution or by any executive agreement that it has signed with rebellious groups in the pre-election period.
As such, the guarantee of the basic rights of the Nepali people to frame a new constitution does not imply the unencumbered sovereign capacity of the CA to draft a new constitution of its choice without any limitations on its powers.

The assembly is intended to operate within two concrete a priori formulations. Article 159 declares that (a) Nepal shall be a federal state and (b) a country with a democratic republican setup. The first formulation concerns sharing of sovereign powers between political units, which do not exist till now in the Nepali consciousness, and the second concerns dispensing with the monarchy, which allegedly lost its credibility in the fight against the Maoists.

As to these preconditions, while the nature of the federal state is something still to be worked on, Article 159 requires that the transition to a republic be made at the first meeting of the CA. To give effect to this formulation, the parties in the alliance even dropped the clause requiring a simple parliamentary majority by the third amendment to the Constitution.

It is just by chance that the operation of this provision is tied to Article 75 which ensures that all questions submitted for a decision to the CA, except as otherwise provided in Part 7 of the constitution, must be decided by a majority vote of the members present and voting. Accordingly, the alleged first meeting must also pass a motion to this effect by a working majority in the House in order to abolish the monarchy.

Similarly, the constitutional declaration that Nepal shall be a federal state comes ahead of its due date. Ordinarily, it is the elected delegates of the CA, who have the responsibility of deciding what form of government is best for Nepal, who should make the decision. With this clause inserted into the constitution, the debate has now been carefully shifted to the issue of autonomy, which had not been the demand of the natives of this country so far.

This shows the enormity of the contradictions that the CA finds itself in. A genuine CA by definition can only be convoked under conditions of full democratic liberties of the delegates, permitting the participation of all the parties concerned, and without any external or internal limitations on its constitution making powers.

A CA is not a legislature that is supposed to be governed under express or implied limitations on its constituent powers. It is a self-sufficient source of power from which all specifics of a state are to be derived. As a corollary, it should be able to exert paramount control over the constitution while making the frame of the government and its administration. While the Interim Constitution might have given birth to the CA in the normal course of political development, the assembly can chart out its future ways without any guidance from the parent document and forge ahead with its own terms and conditions. Otherwise, there is no difference between a normal legislature and a CA intending to give a fresh start.

However, the faulty Interim Constitution has outsmarted its architects in two very surprising ways. First, as far as the general rule of the constitution is concerned, the members of the CA must vote on each and every article of the draft constitution in order to pass it; and failing unanimous passage of the motion, at least two-thirds of the total members of the CA must give it a unanimous exit to turn it into the new constitution.

So, even if the first meeting of the assembly, for example, were to abolish the monarchy and establish a republican state by a simple majority, the move cannot in anyway pre-empt the power of the CA members to reintroduce a new motion restoring the monarchy in due time and pass it by a two-thirds majority. There is nothing in the constitution which can restrain this motion; and as long as there are people in the House to table such a motion and to support it by a required strength, the monarch is here to stay. This means that, contrary to popular belief, the king's fate will remain undecided until the new constitution is promulgated. Same with the declaration of a federal state.

Secondly, the faulty system of proportional representation that the architects of the Interim Constitution introduced with little knowledge of the ensuing structure has already generated a mixed political lot in the assembly. As no party has an outright majority, what we have is a hung CA, and there are many parties in the House which do not share the political platform of the Seven-Party Alliance (which had monopolized the process of drafting the Interim Constitution). The House is compelled to work with these uneasy political partners.

As the constitution does not provide for the dissolution of the assembly on any ground, except when the objective has been accomplished, a hung assembly is bound to work out either a coalition government or a minority government with the support of these backbenchers. The requirement of a two-thirds majority in the constitution making process will force the ruling elite to redefine issues like federalism and monarchy in the overall context of the state's restructuring. The smaller parties in power will make a lot of difference when major constitutional policies are sorted out in the House.

There are some who have already started an exercise (in futility) to help produce a national government eliminating the prospect of any opposition in the constitution making process. The Seven-Party Alliance is almost an exercise of this type, which has already served its purpose. But it is inconceivable that it can continue any longer in the new scenario. In any case, such a national government has a very poor reputation historically. Whether it is the national government of GP Koirala (2006-08) or of British Prime Ministers Ramsay MacDonald, Stanley Baldwin and Neville Chamberlain (which held office from 1931 until 1940), all have been a liability to the nation. Fortunately, a loyal opposition is going to be prominent in Nepal for the next two years. This opposition is going to make sure that the nation is in safe hands.

Additionally, a coalition government led by a party which has lost its credibility before the majority of the people can be equally destructive to the cause of the nation. Nepal is surely familiar with the hung parliament after 1995. It is perhaps not out of place to mention that even in the 1974 general election in the UK, sitting Prime Minister Edward Heath had refused to resign at first, attempting to build a coalition government despite winning fewer seats than the then opposition Labour Party. So if Prime Minister Koirala is still trying to hang on to his post, it should come as no surprise. But the House itself is going to take offence against such ambitions.

The structural limits on the power of the CA and unauthorized normative or inspirational impositions are going to grow fainter due to the operation of the hung CA. This is good for the country.

lawyers_inc_nepal@yahoo.com
Posted on: 2008-05-07 20:01:25 (Server Time)

Tuesday, May 6, 2008

संघीय शासनको सान्दर्भिकता

डा विपिन अधिकारी

http://www.kantipuronline.com/kolnepalinews.php?nid=141810The Kantipur Daily, March 25, 2008 (Chait 12, 2064)

क्यानाडाको क्विन्स विश्वविद्यालयका प्राध्यापक रोनाल्ड वाट्सको 'एकात्मक राज्यप्रणाली विखण्डनकारी हुन्छ' शर्ीष्ाकमा दि काठमाडौं पोष्टमा छापिएको एउटा अन्तर्वार्ताले धेरैको ध्यानाकर्षा गरेको छ । संघीयताका विद्वान र अनुभवी वाट्सको दाबी के छ भने जात, धर्म, जातीयताका आधारमा नभए पनि जनसंख्या, भूगोल, आर्थिक विकासजस्ता विविध आधारमा नेपाललाई संघीय संरचनामा बदल्न सकिन्छ । उनको भनाइमा विखण्डन रोक्न संघीयता जरुरी छ । यसो त विखण्डनका आन्दोलन संघीय राज्यमा पनि भएका छन् । यसै आधारमा मात्र मुलुकको संविधान एकात्मक हुने वा संघीय हुने विवेचना गरिनु हु“दैन । यसबाहेक पनि वाट्सका अन्य भनाइ नेपालका लागि कति सान्दर्भिक छन्, यकिन गर्न जरुरी छ ।

संघीयता आफैंमा नराम्रो प्रचलन होइन । विश्वका करिब दर्ुइ दर्जनबाहेक सबै मुलुकमा एकात्मक राज्यप्रणाली छ । कतिपय मुलुक पर्ूण्ा प्रजातान्त्रिक छन् र आर्थिक विकासका दृष्टिले प्रगतिशील पनि मानिन्छन् । संघीयता अपनाउने मुलुकमध्ये पनि मलेसिया तथा भारतजस्ता आधाभन्दा बढी मुलुकको शक्ति विभाजन केन्द्रीयताको पक्षमै देखिन्छ । औंलामा गन्न सकिने देशले मात्र राज्य र संघलाई समान हैसियतमा स्वीकार गरेका छन् । तथाकथित आत्मनिर्ण्र्ााो अधिकार ग्यारेन्टी गर्ने मुलुक दर्ुलभ छन् ।

प्रचार-प्रसार गरिएजति एकात्मक शासन लोकप्रिय शासन प्रणाली होइन भन्ने दाबी शंंकास्पद मान्नर्ुपर्छ । स्पेन तथा बेल्जियमजस्ता देशले आफूलाई निश्चित राजनीतिक यथार्थका आधारमा संघीयतामा परिणत गरेको सत्य हो । परिवर्तित अवस्थामा पनि उनीहरूम्ााझ एकात्मक विशेषता नभएका होइनन् । कपडाको जुत्ता लगाउने कि छालाको भन्ने प्रश्नको निरूपण कुनै पनि देशको धरातलीय यथार्थका आधारमा गरिनर्ुपर्छ । त्यस आधारमा नेपालले संघीयतामा हामफाली हाल्नुपर्ने कुनै विशेष आकर्षा छैन ।

संघीय शासन पद्धति किन भन्ने उचित जवाफ भेटिएको छैन । नेकपा -माओवादी) को राजनीतिक कार्यक्रमको रूपमा सुरुदेखि स्थापित यो विषय हाल मधेसमुखी दलले ज्ाोडतोडले उठाएका छन् । उनीहरूका एजेन्डा बढी आक्रामक तथा सनातनी संघीयताको व्यवस्था - जस्तो संयुक्त राज्य अमेरिका वा क्यानाडा) तर्फउन्मुख प्रस्टै छ । यसका दर्ुइ कारण छन्, पहिलो, संघीयताको आधार भनेको राजनीतिक इकाइका रूपमा राज्यहरूको स्वतन्त्र अस्तित्व तथा आत्मनिर्ण्र्ााो अधिकार प्रयोग गर्न सकिने स्थिति हो । दोस्रो, विगतमा स्पष्ट आधार नभेटिए पनि ऐतिहासिक राजनीतिक इकाइको रूपमा आफूलाई स्थापित गराउने चाहना हो । अन्य दल मूलभूत रूपमा पछाडि परेका जाति तथा समुदायको सशक्तिकरणको उद्देश्यबाट निर्देशित देखिन्छन् । संघीयतै किन भन्नेमा उनीहरू दिग्भ्रमित छन् । मधेसमुखी दलहरूले संघीयतालाई सामरिक दृष्टिकोणले हेरिदि“दा उनीहरूका अप्ठेरा झन् दर्ुइ गुना बढेका छन् । कुनै पार्टर्ीीनि एकात्मक राज्य पद्धति विरोधी देखि“दैनन् । अहिलेको बाह्य प्रभाव र निर्देशित राजनीतिक वातावरणमा धान्नैपर्ने राजनीतिक कार्यक्रमका रूपमा संघीयता स्वीकार गर्न बाध्य देखिन्छछन् ।

एकात्मक राज्यकै रूपमा रहनु नेपालको राष्ट्रिय स्वार्थ अनुकूल छ । एकात्मकता राष्ट्रिय एकताको प्रतीक हो । एकात्मक राज्यमा दक्ष एवं कुशल शासन तथा नीति निर्धारण तथा राज्य सञ्चालन कार्य सजिलो हुन्छ । राष्ट्रप्रतिको निष्ठा तथा भक्तिलाई अंशबन्डा गर्नुपर्ने स्थिति हु“दैन । राज्य इकाइ र संघबीच शक्ति विभाजन दुर्बोध्य काम हो । मुलुकलाई विभिन्न राज्य इकाइबीच संर्घष्ाको घानमा हाल्नुु हु“दैन । संविधान तथा कानुनमा संशोधन पनि एकात्मक व्यवस्थामै सजिलो हुन्छ । अप्ठेरा परिस्थिति तथा विशेष अवसर तथा चुनौती सामना गर्ने क्षमता पनि एकात्मक सरकारमा बढी हुन्छ । र्
खर्चको हिसाबले अहिलेको परिपाटी संघीय परिपाटीभन्दा फाइदाजनक हुन्छ । शान्ति सुरक्षाजस्ता विषय र त्यसभन्दा पनि संकटकालीन स्थितिमा अहिलेको प्रणाली र्सवाधिक उपयुक्त हुन्छ । नेपाल आर्थिक विकासका सम्भावना तथा भूमण्डलीकरणको परिपे्रक्ष्यमा साहसी निर्ण्र्ाालिने क्षमतावान तथा फर्ुर्तिलो हुन आवश्यक छ । आज अमेरिका तथा क्यानाडा जस्ता देशले नया“ संविधान बनाउने हो भने यस्तो संविधान बनाउनेछन्, जसले शक्तिशाली केन्द्रीय सरकार सुनिश्चित गर्न सकोस् । त्यस्तो सरकारले मात्र राष्ट्रको सुरक्षा तथा प्रतिरक्षा गर्न सक्छ ।

नेपालमा नेपाली जातिको इच्छा र आकांक्षा परिवर्तनको बाहक हुनपाएको छैन । शदीऔंदेखि एकात्मक राज्यका रूपमा रहेको नेपाल तथा सामाजिक-आर्थिक तथा भावनात्मक रूपमा पनि अखण्ड राष्ट्रको स्वाभिमान स्थापित भइसकेको मुलुकको राजनीतिक धरातल बलपर्ूवक परिवर्तन गरी सिमान्तीकृत गर्नुपर्ने कारण बुझ्न सकिएको छैन । संघीयताको नाममा देशलाई दस चिरा पारेर यसबाट अक्षम राजनीतिज्ञ तथा संंकर्ीण्ा पक्षपोषकका लागि अवसर सिर्जना भने गर्न सकिन्छ ।

जतिसुकै ढिपी गरे पनि ऊबेलाको अमेरिकामाजस्तो नेपालीम्ाा राज्य वा समुदायहरूको संघीय राज्य बनाउने सांगठनिक क्षमता तथा त्यसलाई निर्देशन दिने जेर्फसन वा जेम्स मेडिसनजस्ता क्षमतावान नेता प्ानि छैनन् । हाम्रो राजनीतिक नेतृत्वको क्षमता, स्तर वा विवेक निकट भविष्यमै चमत्कारिक ढंगले बढ्ने सम्भावना पनि छैन । विभाजित राज्यप्रणाली समन्वय गरी एकताको सूत्रमा बा“ध्नसक्ने सांगठनिक क्षमता तथा नेतृत्व विकास हुन समय लाग्नेछ ।

प्रजातन्त्र विकासको औजार पनि हो । नेपालमा स्थानीय स्वशासनलाई धेरै वर्षेखि यसै अर्थमा हेरि“दैछ । कतिपय क्षेत्रमा राम्रा तथा उल्लेखनीय काम भएका छन् भने कतिपयमा सुधारका टड्कारा सम्भावना देखिएका छन् । एकात्मक स्वरूपभित्र राज्यको पुनःसंरचना हुनसक्ने तथा पीडित वा उपेक्षित जाति तथा समुदायको अधिकारको ग्यारेन्टी तथा स्थानीय स्वशासन गर्न सकिने स्थिति सधैं छ । उनीहरूले खोजेको समानता तथा सहभागिता कार्यान्वयन गर्न देशको शक्ति तथा सम्भावना निर्वाध प्रयोग गर्न सकिने स्थिति छ । यति हु“दाहु“दै पनि यो मुलुकलाई सम्झौताबाट स्थापित राज्यका रूपमा पुनःलेखन गर्न किन पर्‍यो, आर्श्चर्य लाग्छ । दलित, जनजाति वा मधेसीलाई सशक्तिकरण गर्ने उद्देश्य हो भने केन्द्रीय शासनको मूलधारमा उनीहरूलाई सिधै स्थापित किन गरि“दैन -

नेपाललाई एकात्मक राज्यको अवधारणामै विकास निर्माण गरिनर्ुपर्छ भन्नु अहिलेको राजनीतिक वा प्रशासनिक स्वरूपलाई निरन्तरता दिनर्ुपर्छ भन्ने होइन । सही कार्यका लागि कर्ुतर्कले जित्न आवश्यक छैन । क्षेत्रीय विकासका आवश्यकता तथा राष्ट्रिय एकतालाई स“गस“गै लान सकिन्छ । स्थानीय स्वशासन बलियो बनाई संघीयताका आधार निरन्तर प्रयासबाट बिस्तारै आर्जन गर्न सकिन्छ । स्थानीय स्तरमा र्सार्वजनिक कार्यहरूप्रति उदासीनता हटाउन सकिन्छ । हरेक धर्म, जातजाति, संस्कृति तथा क्षेत्रलाई समान सुविधा तथा पीडित तथा उपेक्षित समुदायलाई अतिरिक्त संरक्षण गर्न देशको अंशबन्डा जरुरी छैन । नत केन्द्र र इकाइ सरकारलाई परस्पर स्वतन्त्र तथा समकक्ष बनाउन जरुरी छ । प्रजातान्त्रिक संगठन र कानुनी राज्यको परम्परा कमजोर हु“दै गएको मुलुकमा संवैधानिक क्लिष्टता वा सत्ता बा“डफा“डले देशको पुनःनिर्माणमा जटिलतामात्र थप्न सक्छ । मुलुकको विकेन्द्रीकरण कार्यक्रम अर्न्तर्गत वर्षोनि सरकारबाट विनियोजित पा“च-सात लाख खर्च गर्ने क्षमता नभइसकेको गाउ“घरलाई संघीयता कति सजिलो होला अनुमान गर्न सकिन्छ ।

प्रा वाट्सका विचार धेरै प्राज्ञिक छन् । उनले नेपालको भू-राजनीतिक स्थितिलाई उक्त अन्तर्वार्ता तथा उनले जीटीजेट तथा युएनडीपीद्वारा आयोजित कार्यशालामा प्रस्तुत गरेको कार्यपत्रमा विवेचना गर्न भ्याएनन् । छिमेक असल हु“दो हो त नेपालले हालको दुरवस्था खप्नुपर्ने थिएन । मुलुक भित्रको आतंकवाद वा औपनिवेशिक चलखेल कसले धान्न सक्छ सधैं - यो पक्ष उचित मूल्याङ्कन गर्दा संघीयताबारे धेरै दाबी यसै खुकुलो भएर जानेछन् । यस स्थितिमा संघीयता केवल बोकाको मुखमा कुभिन्डो चरितार्थ नहोला र -

Sunday, May 4, 2008

Inexplicable Results - Constituent Assembly Elections

Inexplicable Results

http://www.nepalnews.com.np/contents/2008/englishweekly/spotlight/apr/apr18/coverstory.php
VOL. 27, NO. 31, April 18, 2008 (Baishakh 06 2065 B.S.)

Wining majority from out of 240 seats allotted for first-past -post system, the CPN-Maoist, which is yet to receive global recognition as a mainstream party, has turned Nepal, a back water of world's largest democratic country, into a red field. Although the counting of votes for another 335 seats allotted for the proportional representative system is yet to complete, it is almost certain that CPN-Maoist is going to emerge as the single largest party in the Constituent Assembly Elections 2008. The result is inexplicable but CPN-Maoist, a party which fought a decade long violent insurgency – got the mandate in an election which international observers described as free and fair. In a country where a minority government of CPN-UML collapsed in nine months, how long another government led by a radical Maoist will be watched with great interest

By KESHAB POUDEL

"The results of the present election were unexpected. We had not imagined that our party will win such a large number of seats," said CPN-Maoist leader Dr. Baburam Bhattarai to The Kathmandu Post.

"This result surprised us as our candidates have suffered badly," said CPN-UML leader Madhav Kumar Nepal, who resigned just a few days back following the election results.

"How the Maoists won the election in so many places is surprising," said Nepali Congress leader Sher Bahadur Deuba, after his victory in two constituencies in far western districts.
Prime minister Girija Prasad Koirala, who was congratulated by international observers including former American president Jimmy Carter, too, is shocked by the results. "I didn't imagine that our party will be rooted out in such a manner. Just wait for few more days before deciding to quit the government," prime minister Koirala told his colleagues who had gone to meet him at his residence in Baluwatar on Monday.

Not only the top leaders, common people in the streets, too, are very surprised to see the outcome. This is the reason there is no jubilation and happiness despite the wave of victory in favor of the Maoists and there is no spontaneous support and jubilant mass of the people. The only persons participating in the election rallies are the party cadres.
Constitutional Provisions

With the elections to the Constituent Assembly accomplished, the focus of political debate in Nepal has at once shifted from the electoral issues to the issues involving formation of a new government according to the fresh mandate.

“But in the absence of a clear direction under the Constitution, which suffers from many deliberate lacunas and caveats, a very constitutional process is about to be handled in a very controversial way. It is giving the impression that even after housing 601 assemblymen, freshly elected and nominated, the culture of ad hocism does not intend to disappear,” said Dr Bipin Adhikari, lawyer and constitutional analyst.

According to Article 38(1) of the Interim Constitution, the Prime Minister is to be appointed on the basis of political consensus. “There is no provision in the Constitution as to who should initiate the process; how it should be done; and whether there are standards of conduct to get it done. Political consensus is the rule even if there is a majority party in the House. Although the Council of Ministers is to be formed under the Prime Minister's chairmanship, the Council itself is to be the product of political consensus. In this jurisprudence of consensus, the difference between those who have more popular support, and those who have barely survived, is not constitutionally recognized. So, essentially, a majority Prime Minister has no majoritarian power, even if that means disregard to the voters, and the fresh mandate the voters have conferred on the Prime Minister,” said Dr. Adhikari.

The Constitution clearly states that if consensus cannot be reached as above, the Prime Minister shall be elected by a majority of two-thirds of the members of the Constituent Assembly. Even if this provision is rationalised as a stimulant towards consensual process of constitution making, it does not stand out as an acceptable rule of law.

According to Dr. Adhikari, a unicameral house of 601 person is a very loud arrangement. It is impracticable also because the interim Constitution has not provided any mini-legislature within the Constituent Assembly to work on legislative and policy issues so that these jobs are done professionally, and through a deliberative process. It is too much for all 601 assembly men to work in the Constituent Assembly as legislators, and in a meaningful way.

The present result of first-past-post system is just one of the forms decided to elect the members for Constituent Assembly as there is just 240 seats allotted under this system. According to article 63 of the Interim Constitution, the constituent assembly consists of 601 members. Under the proportional representation system there will be 335 members, 240 under the first-past-post system and 26 are nominated on the recommendation of the cabinet.

For the purpose of this constitution "political consensus" means the political consensus reached between the seven political parties- Nepali Congress, Communist Party of Nepal (UML), Janmoracha Nepal, Nepal Sadbhavana Party (Anandadevi), Nepal Majdur Kishan Party, Samyukta Janmorcha and Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist).

After 1995 when CPN-UML formed a government as a single largest party, this is first time in the history of Nepal when communist party with radical ideology has won such a large seats in the election held under the observation of more than one thousand observers led by former US president Jimmy Carter and United Nations Mission to Nepal.

Despite monitoring by international observers, the election was full of violence and threats. From daughter of prime minister Koirala, Sujata Koirala to many other NC leaders who lost the elections lost due to intimidation and threat.

Even many goons came from across the border to terrorize the voters of Sujata Koirala in her constituency 3 of Sunsari. One of Sujata's workers died in cross firing in the bordering polling booth.

"Don't ask me about election. I cried for help from all sides. I did not receive any support. EC was one sided and administration was not concerned about mass rigging," said Koirala.
Though Nepali voters are hailed as a peaceful and conscious voters, Nepalese have tendencies to back one extreme to another without knowing its fall out. When King dissolved the elected parliament in 2002, people welcomed it by lighting the lamps. In similar way, people welcomed the move of February 1,2006 action of the King. They welcomed the interim government led by Koirala and all its actions without any resentment. In the election, they voted radical communist outfit to power without knowing its implications on their life like in CPN-UML in 1992 elections.

Reasons Behind Election Debacle

Several reasons work for the debacle of two parties. One of the main reasons of debacle of Nepali Congress and CPN-UML is their long negative list. Those who had negative views against those two parties voted Maoists as a next choice.

The second important reason was that voters decided to give a chance to fresh players. At a time when there is no plus point in favor of CPN-UML and Nepali Congress –which followed the Maoist line - people saw the Maoists as better alternative.

Nepali Congress has lost a big monarchist vote bank and people disliked CPN-UML because of its feeble stands on political issues. CPN-UML leader Madhav Kumar Nepal- who was also a member of constitution drafting committee in 1990, proved to be inconsistent.

Along with others, CPN-UML also gave up its stand on nationalism. CPN-UML was completely silent over the citizenship Act, water resources treaty and other such sentimental issues. Except anti-monarchy posturing, nothing was left to Nepali Congress and CPN-UML to compete with Maoists. However, the Maoists established itself as an anti-monarchical force long before them. At the last minute, Maoist even issued statement urging Royalist to vote for them.

People have seen Nepali Congress and CPN-UML's role in the government turn by turn. However, among three players, Maoists were untested. This also prompted voters to vote for Maoists.

Other major reason for Maoist victory is deep rooted fear psychology. Rural people decided not to take the risk of voting other parties. When there was a wide spread rumor in the rural areas about Maoist threat and intimidation, no one could dare to risk their life by not voting the Maoists.

Even in his last leg of political campaign, CPN-Maoist leader Prachanda urged his cadres to behave as Gandhiji for seven days. That means they would continue to use drastic methods after the election.

"One of the main reasons behind our devastation is our failure to convince the rural voters that they will be safe after the election for CA," said senior CPN-UML leader Pradeep Nepal.
In an indication of how the Maoists would behave in coming days, on Monday (April 14) Maoists attacked finance minister Dr. Ram Sharan Mahat and his convoy when he was on his way home after winning election in Nuwakot

Because of guarantee of security in urban areas and presence of huge international observers, the population in urban areas did not feel any threat. However, the situation in rural Nepal was very difficult. By winning from a constituency in Rautahat district, a wanted man Babban Singh showed how threat works in rural areas.

The role of unseen power was the most significant to notice. "Maoists have been used for first phase of destabilization in Nepal from 1996-2007 by this unseen power. Now, Maoists can be used for second phase of operation in Nepal to have upper hand in Nepal security," said a political analyst.

International Response

International response to the Maoist victory is positive now. India which has backed Maoists and seven party alliance since November 2006 permitting them to ink the 12 point agreement in New Delhi has already expressed satisfaction. From Indian point of view, this is a great success as they have covertly backed parties and Maoist up to the present point.

Indian ambassador to Nepal Shiv Shanker Mukherjee has already met Maoist leader Prachanda and congratulated him for the success of his party in the election. " India has taken the Maoist victory in constituent assembly elections in Nepal as a positive development," said Indian foreign minister Pranab Mukherjee. "We support the Maoist victory in the April 10 Constituent Assembly election in Nepal and view it as a positive development. The Maoists have successfully taken part in the democratic process. It will now be easier to India to work with the democratically elected government of Nepal."

The United States - which still tags Maoists in its terrorist watch list – has mumbled few words of congratulations for conducting election. For Europeans, they were in constant touch with the Maoist leadership.

Nepal's other neighbor China also expressed satisfaction over the way the constituent assembly election was held.

Lessons For Nepali Congress

Nepali Congress legendary leader B.P. Koirala often said that Nepali Congress has no utility if it gives up the policy of national reconciliation. "If we give up national reconciliation, which is based on nationalism and democracy, our role will diminish. We must understand that we will lose our identity in case we give up national reconciliation," said Koirala in his book King, Nationalism and Politics (Raja, Rastriyata and Rajniti).

"National unity cannot be achieved in vacuum. Which means that the people factor and the monarchy must combine, that there must be total understanding between these two elements of national life. The alternative to this is ruin. That is what I feel and, therefore, I do not contemplate any alternative to this," said B.P. Koirala in his interview to Bhola Chatterji, an Indian journalist in 1979.

However, joining hands with extremists and following their ideology, Nepali Congress has badly suffered in the election. Although he is regarded as a hero by international community, prime minister Girija Prasad Koirala is completely a loser at his end of political carrier. He pushed Nepali Congress from largest party with majority to nowhere.

Challenges For Newly Elected body

The greatest challenge for the elected representatives of the people is to realize their responsibility as trustee of the people – the sovereign. “In no way, this elected body would be under a bondage to follow the diktat of the dubious power centers of the party or elsewhere. Though it was an avoidable game of populism, the CA is a reality. It will have to take up every issue in the constitution making in accordance with the fresh mandate of the people. It is under no compulsion to endorse the ruling or decisions of the previous nominated house of legislators," said the analyst. “The greatest challenge to Nepal at present is a question of survival as a truly independent, democratic and prosperous nation.”

"We will bring peace, stability and prosperity to the people. We will work to protect our independence and sovereignty," said Maoist leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda in his victory rally.

While taking about these consensus issues, national unity is the first and foremost task ahead. "It requires a caliber in the leadership, a long term vision and accommodative attitude. People of Nepal have always been supportive of the political ideals of broadest unity between different sections of the people. B.P. Koirala is all the time remembered by different ideological groups of Nepal mainly because of his politics of reconciliation based upon a long term vision," said the political analyst.

Issue of Monarchy

Although article 159(2) of the interim constitution declares that the implementation of transition to republic shall be made at the first meeting of the Constituent Assembly, the parties are yet to make new decision on it. The newly elected body has to discuss over the utility of institution of monarchy in its first session. Since time immemorial, it has been the most significant continuity from the past. The newly elected body has to balance the pros and cons of its utility and legislate about its fate.

"This legislative body is not going to be a rubber stamp of any past decision. As it represents the sovereignty of the people with its fresh mandate, it cannot remain under duress from the seen and unseen centers of powers or irrational decisions of the past," said the analyst. "As it is going to consider things in a long term perspective, it has to evaluate the role of traditional institution maintaining traditional faith of the people as a stabling factor."

The election results showed that it was neither about the king against the people or upper cast Vs lower cast or Madhes Vs Pahad. Many members who actively took part in King's direct rule have won the election and some of them are contesting the election through proportional representation. Former regional administrator under King's direct rule Mrigendra Kumar Singh Yadav and former assistant minister under his direct rule Govinda Chaudhari won the election as candidates of Terai Madhesh Loktantrick Party and Bijaya Kumar Gachhedar - who was reportedly soft about King's direct rule - also secured victory from two constituencies in the election as a candidate of MJF.

Many people of hilly origin won seats from Madhesh contesting as candidates of major parties Nepali Congress, CPN-UML and CPN-Maoist. They won seats in all 22 districts of plain, which Madhesi parties wanted as a separate federal state. In some districts like Bardiya, Kailali, Kanchapur, Jhapa, andUdayapur, these parties swept the polls.

Similarly, many republicans including CPN-UML general secretary Madhav Kumar Nepal, Home minister Krishna Prasad Sitaula and Dr. Shekhar Koirala, Mahesh Acharya also lost the elections. Republican leader Narahari Acharya won the election but at the cost of Nepali Congress which was virtually uprooted in many places.

The Pandora's Box of Constituent Assembly is now reality for Nepal and the country needs a sobriety in the decision making process on the part of the legislators as well as the political parties.